This post is a personal investment journal based on my own market study and observations. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All investment decisions and responsibilities belong to each individual investor, so please make careful decisions based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
[Bitcoin, BTCUSDT.P]
This is the comprehensive Bitcoin chart. From the upper left in a Z-shaped order, the timeframes are the 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts.
- Last week’s weekly candle fell toward the end and closed bearish. After the large bullish candle, the next candle was important, so this was a somewhat disappointing result. The upward trend failed to continue.
- Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin has also been moving sideways for several days. The RSI is above 70, which is not a common situation. From a longer-term perspective, I need to keep in mind that price could move lower at any time. The gap between the candles and the moving averages is also quite wide. Candles and moving averages always tend to come back toward each other. Considering several factors, I think it is important to trade while keeping in mind the possibility of a pullback.
- In the short term, however, the moving averages have started to converge, and price is swinging sharply both up and down. When moving averages converge, it often means a breakout or directional move may be coming. So I need a strategy of watching the short-term moving averages and entering a position when that move begins.
[1-Hour Chart]
- I drew the volume zone for the sideways range. The candles are moving up and down between the center, or POC, and the upper 30% area, or VAH.
- The RSI is also in the 50s, which is an ambiguous area, so predicting direction is not easy.
- The sequence has been: 1. rise then decline, 2. decline then rise, 3. rise then decline, and 4. a large bullish candle.
- Since point 3 was lower than the high of point 1 and formed an inverse W pattern, I tried betting on downside, but Bitcoin then formed another large bullish candle. As mentioned earlier, making profit in this kind of sideways market does not look easy.
- It also does not seem suitable for Turtle Trading, because price keeps moving in the middle between the upper and lower boundaries.
[Ethereum, ETHUSDT.P]
This is the comprehensive Ethereum chart.
- My view is not very different from Bitcoin. From a longer-term perspective, the weekly candle still has not broken above the SMA 200, so Ethereum appears to need more strength before it can move into a clearer upward trend.