This post is a personal investment journal based on my own market study and observations. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All investment decisions and responsibilities belong to each individual investor, so please make careful decisions based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
[Bitcoin, BTCUSDT.P]
This is the comprehensive Bitcoin chart. From the upper left in a Z-shaped order, the timeframes are the 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts.
[Weekly Chart]
Bitcoin is showing a gain of more than 1% today.
The weekly candle is forming a long lower wick. As mentioned before, where this week’s candle closes is important.
To repeat, this is because Bitcoin is touching the 0.618 area of the downward speed fan and the SMA 200.
[Daily Chart]
Bitcoin is attempting to rebound from the centerline of the sideways volume zone. If today’s daily candle closes like this and tomorrow also shows a bullish candle, then the volume-zone centerline that price passed through today could be considered a good buying point.
The SMA 50 is also holding, and even the slope of the SMA 50 is turning positive. From a longer-term perspective, it seems right to respond with an upward bias.
[4-Hour Chart]
When moving to the mid- to long-term timeframe, the story changes slightly.
The SMA 50 and VWMA 100 are preparing for a dead cross. While the longer-term view can still lean upward, I think it is more reasonable to expect a sideways rise rather than a one-way move higher.
The current candle is forming long wicks both above and below, which is a typical sign of buyers and sellers fighting for control.
[1-Hour Chart]
Then the question becomes: when should I buy?
On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin appears to be receiving support at the SMA 200. One approach would be to buy near the SMA 200 and keep a tight stop-loss. Another approach would be to wait for price to break below the SMA 200, and if it later rebounds but faces resistance around the SMA 200, consider betting on downside.
Since the mid- to long-term timeframe has a high chance of moving sideways, the positive view is that both upside and downside moves can be captured. The negative view is that losses can also grow on both sides if the market keeps swinging.
[Ethereum, ETHUSDT.P]
This is the comprehensive Ethereum chart.
[Weekly Chart]
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum does not have clear nearby support or resistance levels, so this is an area that is difficult to interpret.
[Daily Chart]
Ethereum is moving sideways around the VWMA 100. I think it is reasonable to view this as a process of absorbing both upward and downward volume. The end of that process could bring strong volatility, so careful observation and response will be important for capturing a larger move.
At the moment, Ethereum is gradually moving out of the bearish Ichimoku cloud. If I had to take a longer-term directional bias, I think it would be toward the upside.
[4-Hour Chart]
Today, I drew one more yellow circle. At this point, I almost feel like this pattern can be trusted.
When Ethereum comes near the VWMA 100, I think it should first be viewed as likely to receive support. Of course, it could unfortunately break down through that structure, but based on the flow so far, I think this support pattern deserves trust.
[1-Hour Chart]
The moving averages are overlapping, and the area is somewhat complex, so interpretation is not easy.
For now, the only thing I can really rely on is the VWMA 100 support shown on the 4-hour chart.