This post is a personal investment journal based on my own market study and observations. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All investment decisions and responsibilities belong to each individual investor, so please make careful decisions based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
[Bitcoin, BTCUSDT.P]
This is the comprehensive Bitcoin chart. Today, I plan to only discuss the comprehensive chart and wrap things up there. Over the past few days, many of the predictions I made while reading the charts did not play out as expected. I want to go back to the basics and focus only on the moving averages, RSI, and Ichimoku cloud.
Unless Bitcoin makes a strong move higher overnight, the weekly candle is likely to close bearish tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. This would be the first bearish candle after four weeks, or about one month, of upward movement. Still, it is difficult to say that this bearish candle has completely broken the previous trend. The weekly chart also continues to move sideways around the SMA 200. A state that is neither fully bullish nor fully bearish has been continuing for quite a long time.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin broke above the SMA 50, but failed to rise meaningfully and has now moved back below it. The market lacks the strength needed for an upward move, and since price is inside the bearish Ichimoku cloud, it is even harder for it to gain momentum. From a longer-term perspective, it seems difficult to expect a major rise.
Looking at the RSI on the 4-hour chart, it has been moving up and down between the 40 and 60 range. In a positive sense, this can be a good area to profit from swings in both directions. But for someone like me, it can also be an easy place to misread the market and take losses. An amateur should probably rest in this kind of market, but I became greedy.
On the 1-hour chart, there was a section where the RSI fell below 30. That was where I should have bought. I misread the market. As I write and study, I am reminding myself of this again.
On the short-term timeframes below the 30-minute chart, price is showing extreme moves both upward and downward. This definitely looks like an area where retail traders need to be careful.
[Ethereum, ETHUSDT.P]
This is the comprehensive Ethereum chart.
Ethereum is not moving very differently from Bitcoin. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the movement is similar, but the amplitude is larger. It is not easy for the 4-hour RSI to move above 70, but Ethereum did reach that level. On the daily Ichimoku cloud, the candle is sitting near the upper edge of the bearish cloud. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum clearly has larger movement, and I wonder whether a stronger long-term upward force or atmosphere may be forming.
Other than that, it is similar to Bitcoin. The current market is not necessarily difficult to interpret, but I cannot guarantee that the interpretation is correct. I also want to treat this as a chance to study more and return to the basics.