This post is a personal investment journal based on my own market study and observations. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All investment decisions and responsibilities belong to each individual investor, so please make careful decisions based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.
[Bitcoin, BTCUSDT.P]
This is the comprehensive Bitcoin chart. From the upper left in a Z-shaped order, the timeframes are the 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts.
[Weekly Chart]
- The weekly candle closed without forming a long upper wick. And this week’s candle has started by filling in the area that could have become an upper wick.
- I was concerned about a sharp decline after the rapid rise, but so far, that concern does not seem necessary.
[Daily Chart]
- I drew a speed fan for the decline from January to July.
- It felt like Bitcoin had broken through the 0.618 area with a strong move and then started moving sideways. With today’s rise, it now feels like price has clearly moved above that area. Of course, I still need to watch until the daily close at 9:00 a.m. tomorrow.
- The probability of reaching the previous high from May also seems high, and this means the probability of moving up toward the January high has also risen above 61.8%.
- At this point, rather than betting on downside, it seems more important to position with the possibility of further upside in mind.
[1-Hour Chart]
- In a rapid uptrend, the EMA, or exponential moving average, tends to fit better than the SMA, or simple moving average.
- As you can see, Bitcoin is moving higher while receiving support around the yellow EMA 50 area.
- Right now, the market is too overheated, so it makes sense to wait for the heat to cool down. If taking a short-term position, one approach is to wait until price touches the EMA.
[Ethereum, ETHUSDT.P]
This is the comprehensive Ethereum chart.
[Weekly Chart]
- Ethereum’s flow is similar to Bitcoin’s, but the strength is somewhat greater.
- It has passed through the 0.618 area of the speed fan drawn from January and has also broken above the previous high from May.
[Daily Chart]
- The daily RSI is also overheated, so trying to enter a position at the current point could be very risky.
- As I mentioned in a previous post, if RSI had slowly moved from 30 to 70 over a long period and I did nothing, then regret would be understandable.
- But this time, the market rose sharply without giving much time to react. There is no need to regret missing it. RSI will eventually cool down, and I can wait for that moment.
- It may feel like if I do not enter today, the market will never give another opportunity and will just run far away. But in reality, that is usually not how it works.
- I will wait and watch.